487
FXUS62 KGSP 211049
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT THE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT THE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP US MOSTLY DRY. MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST CAM OUTPUT. THEY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THEM ARE JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT OUTPUT, OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE W/NW
ON MONDAY, AND MOVE THRU OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PER THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA. AS SUCH, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK NOW HAS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NC ZONES
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF OUR CWA IS STILL UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AT THIS TIME, LARGE HAIL AND/OR TORNADOES APPEAR UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION,
IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE MAY SEE ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVE THRU OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A SECOND ROUND MOVE THRU LATER MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY AND MORE HIGH-RESOLU-
TION GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE FULL EVENT. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SWLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MARGINALLY WEAKER GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THRU THURSDAY,
AND VALUES JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL SITES THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CIRRUS,
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THIS MORNING. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW
CUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
FOG SETTLED IN THE USUAL MTN VALLEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER LAKE HARTWELL AND THEN DRIFTED OVER KAND
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. AS SUCH, I HAVE PREVAILING 1/2 SM
WITH FOG AND A TEMPO FOR 1/4 SM FROM 12 TO 14Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z IF NOT EARLIER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VRB TO CALM THRU THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY PICK UP FROM THE S/SW
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. KCLT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LOW-END GUSTS TOWARDS THE END OF THEIR TAF PERIOD
LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CON-
TINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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