836
FXUS62 KGSP 220553
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE MONDAY EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE MONDAY EVENING, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DRY TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD. THE 12Z
CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-85 AND WEST OF I-26 BUT KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GSP CWA. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTING 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 1,500-2,200+ J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS MONDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN HAZARD STILL APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATEST HIGH-RES
TRENDS HAVE THE MAIN LINE TRACKING A BIT SLOWER, WITH TIMING FOR
SEVERE STORMS NOW LOOKING TO BE ~4 PM TO MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON SO THESE
LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER. ALTHOUGH
SPC EXPANDED THE THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GSP
CWA, CONFIDENCE ON THE SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS LOW AS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING
AND AS THE 12Z CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A RESULT. CONFIDENCE ON THE DAMAGING WIND RISK IS HIGHER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WHERE ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. BREEZY SW WINDS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH (WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA). ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, NW FLOW RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT (MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE) BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS
POTENTIAL, THE LATEST NBM HAS TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE MORNING. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SW
BY LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WINDS
STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. TSRA CHANCES ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOME AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER OUR AREA. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WE SHOULD EXPECT THRU THE AFTN
AND EVENING, WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE VARYING CONSIDERABLY FROM
RUN TO RUN. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LATE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER, AND WHETHER OR NOT THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY JUST SHOWERS. NONETHELESS,
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE NC MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, SO I HAVE PREVAILING -TSRA AT KAVL BEGINNING AROUND
18Z TODAY WITH VCTS THIS EVENING FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
AT KAVL. FOR KHKY, I HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 19 TO 23Z WITH
VCTS AFTER THAT. FOR KCLT AND THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, POPS ARE
LOWER OVERALL AND CONFIDENCE WRT TIMING IS LOWER, SO I KEPT
PROB30S FOR TSRA FROM ROUGHLY 18 TO 24Z TODAY WITH VCTS FOR
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/CP/JPT
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