810
FXUS62 KGSP 221859
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
2. BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY WEST
OF I26, AND WITH CAPES ALREADY >2500J/KG ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE
GA EXPECT THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP CAPE TRENDS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE ESCARPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 3000.
ADD TO THIS SOME WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS THE REMNANT MCV PUSHES
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC SLIGHT RISK COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH MOSTLY WIND CONCERNS THOUGH WITH A SLIVER OF INCREASED
HAIL THREAT IN THE NC PIEDMONT. TIMING, HOWEVER, IS VERY UNCERTAIN
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH CAMS DEPICTING A ROUND
MOVING MOSTLY THROUGH THE NW NC PIEDMONT THROUGH EVENING, WITH A
SECOND ROUND MOVING INTO WNC LATE THIS EVENING, WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. QPF NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNING WITH AT
WORST 2 OR SO INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON IF
ANY OF THE CONVECTION TRAINS. FINALLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 25-30MPH.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS ACROSS E/SE ZONES (GENERALLY IN
THE AREA S OF I85 AND E OF I26) BUT WITHOUT THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THE
MCV JUST EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND INCREMENTALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
FLOW SPLITTING THE UPPER WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW
RIDGE, ALLOWING A RETURN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN RISING. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, AND EXPECT THAT TSRA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN BUT HAVE USE A
COMBINATION OF PROB30 AND TEMPO, WITH TIMING LATER FOR KCLT THAN
WESTERN TAFS, BUT CONVECTION COULD EASILY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MVFR TO IFR DECK
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY, BURNING OFF BETWEEN
12-14Z. SW GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN SHIFT NW BY TUESDAY MORNING, CURRENT TIMING AT KCLT IS BETWEEN
14-18Z.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
TDP
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