311
FXUS62 KGSP 230002
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE SEVERE
RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF
GOING INTO TONIGHT.
2. BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD
TAPER OFF GOING INTO TONIGHT.
COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS, AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE REMAINS AN MCS ADVANCING
RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT THERE ARE ALREADY
INDICATIONS ON RADAR THAT IT'S LOSING ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, FIRST OVER THE UPSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
THEREAFTER ALONG THE ACTUAL ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE TO CONVECTION BY THIS POINT IN TIME, SO THINK THE SEVERE
RISK SHOULD DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS ACROSS E/SE ZONES (GENERALLY
IN THE AREA S OF I85 AND E OF I26) BUT WITHOUT THE UPPER SUPPORT
OF THE MCV JUST EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND INCREMENTALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
FLOW SPLITTING THE UPPER WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW
RIDGE, ALLOWING A RETURN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN RISING. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SCATTERED SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING, BUT WITH GENERALLY
LESS COVERAGE, AND LESS PROPENSITY TO BECOME SEVERE, THAN WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH 06Z OR SO, WITH CAMS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
ROBUST SQUALL LINE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE WILL FALL APART OVER
THE NC SMOKIES, LIKELY NOT HAVING AN IMPACT ON ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEE HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY AFTER
09Z FOR THE UPSTATE SITES...PERHAPS AS LATE AS 11-12Z FOR KCLT.
STILL EXPECT A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH LOW-END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/TDP
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