855
FXUS62 KGSP 240500
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.
2. DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 730 PM, WITH NW BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY,
AND IN THE GAPS CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND EVEN TOWARD THE PIEDMONT AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXITS WITH THE FRONT. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SHOWERS
WITH THE MECHANICAL UPLIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING,
BUT POPS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE PUSH INTO OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LOWS AND HIGHS, WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN THE GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
WEEKEND.
WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST STARTING THURSDAY,
AND AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BACKBUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, HEIGHTS AND
CORRESPONDING THICKNESSES WILL RISE AGAIN. EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS, WITH
PIEDMONT TEMPERATURES OVER THE THREE-DAY PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO IN SOME CASES UPPER 90S. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A TOUCH COOLER VS PREVIOUS FORECAST ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY (IT'S ALL RELATIVE, MAYBE 96
INSTEAD OF 98), BUT STILL DEWPOINTS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. CANNOT RULE OUT HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT EACH AFTERNOON AND ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK THE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TREND, WITH BEST CHANCES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS ALONG THE TN BORDER COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU THE 06 TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. OTHER
THAN FEW TO SCT CIRRUS, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A N TO NE OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE
MORNING AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, THEN GO LIGHT AND
VRB TO CALM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT KHKY AND KAVL,
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT/TDP
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