523
FXUS62 KGSP 250515
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, KEEPING THE CWA RELATIVELY DRY. BY FRIDAY, THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL, STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE SURFACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC MIGRATES WESTWARD. THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH SHOULD
START ADVECTING MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, THE
HIGHER CHANCES (40-60%) FOR STORM ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES FOR A
PORTION OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE SIGNALS FOR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT
WEST PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES CLIMB. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK SO FAR WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE EASTERN NC PIEDMONT,
INCLUDING CHARLOTTE. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURNING, THIS ALSO
INCREASES THE HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WELL. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE HEAT
INDICES OF 100-103 ON SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. ON
SUNDAY, THESE HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE MORE SPREAD OUT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TO START NEXT WEEK, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL FOR 100+ HEAT INDICES IN SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE
EXACT VALUES MAY CHANGE A BIT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT'S ABOUT TO GET HOT AND
PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT AFFECTS
ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS, BE SURE TO PROPERLY HYDRATE, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID OVERHEATING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS. MTN
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH KAVL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THRU THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
REASSERT ITSELF AND WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM SW THIS AFTERNOON.
THEY WILL GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RE-
STRICTIONS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY ONWARD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NC MTNS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP/JPT
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