723
FXUS62 KGSP 131049
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS UNTIL 8
PM TODAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WELL-BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
2. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WELL-BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
BUT SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS,MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85. THIS IS SPELLING A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS
THE AIR MASS MODESTLY DESTABILIZES IN CONTINUED VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL AGAIN RAMP UP DURING THIS
TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AREAS OF NC, WHERE
POOR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND WHERE THE ESE UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT. BY MONDAY EVENING, 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (LESSER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER), WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5"
OR MORE VERY MUCH IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. FOR THIS REASON, A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. AWAY FROM THIS AREA, FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE OF
SOME CONCERN, BUT THE THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE...DEPENDENT LARGELY UPON WHICH BASINS ARE PRIMED DUE TO
RECENT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS A LESSER CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THERE, DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER, BUT JUST ENOUGH
BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF STRAY SEVERE STORMS. NE
LOW LEVEL FLOW, CLOUD COVER, AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS STACKED/WEAK CYCLONE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF LOWER
THETE-E/MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS, ESE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT, AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 8 PM TODAY, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THIS MAY NEED EXTENSION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE BENEFITS OF THE ADVECTION OF LOWER
THETA-E AIR FROM THE NE AND EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY,
AS GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LITTLE-TO-NO DESTABILIZATION,
EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE TN BORDER. THESE AREAS ARE
WHERE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE ADVERTISED TUES, BUT THE
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD BE LARGELY FREE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODIFYING AIR MASS/RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY...
WITH NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX CONCERNS COULD CROP UP AGAIN DURING
THIS TIME, WITH 100+ VALUES FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
CHARLOTTE METRO MOST AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE SEASONABLY HOT
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON-
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND POPS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ARE GENERALLY LIMITED TO NEAR, OR EVEN BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH AT MOST WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE NC
PORTION OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPING (ALONG WITH SCATTERED TS) THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN THIS MORNING, BUT THEY ARE SLOWLY
BUT SURELY DOING SO, AND EXPECT ALL SITES...PERHAPS EXCEPTING
KAVL...TO SEE IFR SETTLE IN BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THEY DO FILL IN,
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST SITES SHOULD SEE MVFR AT SOME POINT, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FROM 18-24Z, WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA ADVERTISED
AT ALL SITES. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE THIS
EVENING, WITH IFR LIKELY RETURNING BY 06Z TUESDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE ENE
AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-
501>506.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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