605
FXUS62 KGSP 141041
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AREAS.
2. A RETURN TO HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
FAR WESTERN AREAS.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
CWA. THE RELATIVELY COOL ENE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY,
AS INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HAVING SAID THAT,
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ENE LATER TODAY. THUS, AFTER WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW CLOUD COVER,
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE,
AND MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
OUT BEFORE SUNSET. AS SUCH, THE WARMEST TEMPS (MID-80S) TODAY ARE
FORECAST ALONG/EAST OF I-77, WHILE FORECAST MAXES ACROSS MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA (EXCEPTING THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN
BORDER) ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF
THE CWA, AND AFTERNOON POPS (MAINLY 30-50%) ARE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THOSE AREAS. A SMALL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST,
MAINLY IN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 THAT HAVE RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WED, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, WITH CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
TO SCATTER EARLIER IN THE DAY, AND THE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY
IN THE JULY SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
WED. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE TO END THE WEEK, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100+ ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT AREAS BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS THU AND FRI, WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED THU,
AND MORE LIKE SOLID SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR FRI.
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN DEPICTING FALLING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO ENHANCE (MAINLY) DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IF A SHRA HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER
A TAF SITE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-4SM VISBY, BUT
CHANCES FOR A DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
A TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
UPSTATE SC TERMINALS, WITH MOSTLY MVFR AT THE NC SITES. WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS,
CHANCES FOR IFR ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AT THE NC TERMINALS, AND
WILL FEATURE CONTINUED MVFR THERE UNTIL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE
THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME TS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NE HALF (I.E., KHKY AND KCLT)
SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PROB30S FOR TSRA
ARE ADVERTISED AT KAND AND KGMU, WITH VCSH AT KGSP AND KAVL. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY SCATTER AND ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATE NO
LATER THAN MID-EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. FOR NOW, OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIMITED TO MVFR VISBY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL MID-JULY COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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