817
FXUS62 KGSP 141844
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING INTO THE
100 TO 105-DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH 105+ HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE IN THE
CHARLOTTE AREA FRIDAY.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AREAS.
2. HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RETURN INTO THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AREAS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWFA, AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
EAST. WHILE SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, BUT THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ISOLATED, WITH SEVERE THREAT BEING VERY LOW. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN AND CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES AND CLEAR OUT CLOUDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH MOIST BL FROM THE RAINY WEATHER LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE WEAK SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, SHUNTING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GA
COUNTIES, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY. TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RETURN INTO
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ELEVATED HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY TOP OUT
OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT EACH
DAY THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT REACHING 100+ PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES, AND
UP TO 105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND THE SOUTHERN
LAKELANDS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA,
IF THESE TRENDS HOLD. HEAT WILL BEGIN TO ABATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
POPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT WITH MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THEN ABOVE-CLIMO POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TYPICAL
PULSE SEVERE CHANCES MAY RETURN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY,
THE NBM HAS COME IN WITH LOWER POPS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTN, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE 18Z TAF AT KCLT AND KHKY,
BUT WITH SOME MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR) LINGERING AT THE OTHER SITES
FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THE TAF. WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECK,
STILL PLENTY OF EMBEDDED SHRA, BUT SHOULD MAINLY SHIFT WEST OF THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG AND POTENTIALLY A LIFR/IFR
STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS/VSBY OVERALL, SO HAVE REFLECTED THAT
IN THE 18Z TAFS. KCLT HAS THE LOWEST CHANCES OF ANY RESTRICTIONS,
THANKS TO DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NE. BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND KCLT NEAR DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION THERE FOR NOW. WHATEVER FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPS SHOULD
BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEAVING CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NE/ENE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNTIL EARLY EVENING, THEN GO
LGT/VRB AT ALL SITES AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TYPICAL MID-JULY COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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