900
FXUS62 KGSP 150647
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AREAS.
2. HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RETURN INTO THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY, WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AREAS.
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY,
AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS MORE STRONGLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THE CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN A GRADIENT OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY, SUCH THAT MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE CWA, AND AFTERNOON POPS (MOSTLY 20-40%) WILL BE CONFINED
TO THESE AREAS. CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE LOSS OF ENE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RETURN INTO
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEEK'S
END, ALBEIT STEADILY WEAKENING WITH TIME, AS A SERIES OF HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY, A RETURN TO HOT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT, AND HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
THU/FRI AFTERNOON, WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL WHILE ALSO ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES, ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY...WHEN LIKELY MOUNTAIN POPS W/ SOLID CHANCES ELSEWHERE
ARE FORECAST. MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER AREA OF HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK FRONTAL ZONE COULD AGAIN ENHANCE CHANCES CIRCA TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT KCLT AND KHKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS CYCLE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. KAVL HAS ALREADY REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND
SCT002 EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A MASS OF VFR
STRATOCU JUST WEST OF THE AIRFIELD, AND THIS MAY SLOSH AROUND IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE MORNING, MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST,
AS THIS HIGHER CLOUD COVER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT FOG/LOW
STRATUS FORMATION. OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR IFR VISBY THERE FROM
08-10Z, WITH CATEGORICAL LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 10-13Z. THE POTENTIAL
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LOWER AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS, BUT
TEMPO MVFR VISBY IS ADVERTISED AT THOSE SITES FROM 09-12Z. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AND VFR IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING ON. OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SW WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT/VRBL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. TYPICAL MID-JULY COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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