073
FXUS62 KGSP 161859
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR GROUND LEVEL OZONE WAS ISSUED FOR
DAVIE COUNTY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
2. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 106
DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE IMPAC-
TING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO OUR FCST
AREA TODAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA, AND ROUGHLY
3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK IN THE
100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NON-MTN ZONES, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF 105 POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS A BIT HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS, AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LESS DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BROAD PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES (WELL TO OUR NORTH) TO SPREAD
OVER OUR AREA BY TOMORROW, WHICH WOULD HELP SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES.
HAVING SAID THAT, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
ANY ADVISORIES FOR FRI OR SAT, BUT ONE COULD STILL BE ISSUED WITH
THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS, INDIVIDUALS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
ELEVATED HEAT RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
FALLING HEIGHTS/WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH LOWER POTENTIAL
FOR SFC DEWPTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, THE
CURRENT FCST STILL HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 103 RANGE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF
MORE TYPICAL HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED,
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING GENERALLY WEAK CAPPING AND SOMEWHAT
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER DEEP MIXING. WITH WEAKER CAPPING
EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS, ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY
LESS CAPPED/MORE UNSTABLE/MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY SHOULD
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS, WHILE
ALSO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FCST AREA.
WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, SFC-BASED CAPE OF ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG
AND ROBUST DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1000+ J/KG WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS EACH DAY.
WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, AN INCREASE IN CON-
VECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY,
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ENHANCE COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS, WITH A CELL JUST
NOW DEVELOPING NEAR KAND. AS SUCH, I HAVE VCTS AT KAND UNTIL 00Z.
I EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE OTHER SITES,
SO I HAVE NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE OTHER TAF SITES TODAY.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKE THIS MORNING I DON'T THINK IT WILL REACH KAVL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS OUTSIDE THE MTNS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VRB INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP MARGINALLY FROM THE
NE LATER TOMORROW MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. AT
KAVL, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW/N THRU TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VRB LATER IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES STILL APPEAR HIGHEST ACROSS THE MTNS. BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 94 1988 69 1930 72 2020 49 1926
1980 1897
1932
KCLT 100 1899 67 1930 76 2020 58 2004
1887 1988 2001
KGSP 101 1887 65 1930 79 1937 57 1888
RECORDS FOR 07-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 95 1980 72 1917 77 1887 54 1939
1891
KCLT 100 1986 74 1989 80 1881 62 2004
1887 1896 1903
1886
KGSP 103 1887 76 1930 76 1934 60 1886
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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