117
FXUS62 KGSP 260025
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
825 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS RETURNING BEHIND THE
FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS RETURNING BEHIND
THE FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE SOUTHEAST IN A "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STORM COMPLEXES ROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A FEW STRONG,SUB-SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK HEATING AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
OR TWO CANNOT ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE SEVERE THREAT RAMPS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, RANGING FROM 30-35+ KTS. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH
SURFACE INSTABILITY RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 1,800-2,500 J/KG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (PER THE 06Z GLOBAL MODELS) WILL BRING A HIGHER
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
(OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN NC MOUNTAINS) AND A SLIVER OF THE NORTHERN SC
UPSTATE APPEARS WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT
HIGHLIGHTED IN A SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 5 (WEDNESDAY), DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE MCS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BRIEF DRYING MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
ON HIGHS ON TUESDAY IS LOW AS THE MCS COULD ACT TO LIMIT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE MCS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS SCT SOME THIS AFTN/
EVENING, WE STILL HAVE A FEW SITES REPORTING MVFR CIGS (INCLUDING
KAVL). IN ADDITION, SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP A BIT OVER THE
PAST FEW HRS. WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE UPSTATE,
I INCLUDED VCTS FOR KGSP, KGMU, AND KAND FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
VCSH FOR KAVL. SHRA CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE NC MTNS. CONFIDENCE WRT
TIMING OF SHRA REMAINS LOW AS HIGH-RES MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. AS SUCH, I HAVE VCSH AT ALL OUR TAF SITES (WITH A TEMPO
FOR SHRA AT KAVL) BEGINNING AROUND 08Z. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBY EXPECTED WITH TEMPOS FOR LIFR CIGS
AT MOST SITES. RESTRICTIONS (ESPECIALLY CIGS) WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME SITES NOT SEEING VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL ROUGHLY NOON. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AT MOST SITES
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB
TO CALM THRU THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WINDS AT KAVL COULD FAVOR A NW/N
DIRECTION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS, BREEZY SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT
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