692
FXUS62 KGSP 290023
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
823 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SC AND
NORTHEAST GA COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT, AND ONE REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA LATE EVENING,
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS.
2. LESS HUMID, DRIER, AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA LATE
EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SC AND GA
COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT. STORMS HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUR NC COUNTIES, SO THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NC COUNTIES AND ALONG I-85 TO ROWAN UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, WITH A NON-ZERO LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WITH 30-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, 2,000-3,000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND 2,000-
2,500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
INITIALLY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL BUT THE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER AS CELLS ATTEMPT TO CONVERGE
MORE INTO A LINE AS STORMS PUSH SOUTHWARD, PER THE 12Z CAMS. THE
TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AS BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND STORMS
EVENTUALLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A LINE WILL KEEP THESE
HAZARDS AROUND. WITH LOW-LEVEL 0-1 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM MOSTLY
10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PER 12Z HIGH-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS, AND WITH ~100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 SRH EXPECTED, THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND ISOLATED. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE
GSP CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LESS HUMID, DRIER, AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ENDING UP JUST BELOW
NORMAL TO START AUGUST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING CONVECTION THAT
WILL IMPACT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE SITES OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS,
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A TEMPO AT KCLT. UPGRADED TO TEMPO AT KGSP/KGMU, BUT KEEPING
PROB30 AT KAND, DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR OUT
TO THE SOUTH, LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ANY FOG OR STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARGINALLY
BREEZY N/NW WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/ARK
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