055
FXUS62 KGSP 301838
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY AND
NO DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING BACK HIGH RAIN CHANCES, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND NO DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEEP, RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
OVER THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY, RESULTING IN LARGER-THAN-NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES: MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S/
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW...IF NOT 0 CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING BACK HIGH RAIN CHANCES, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRI NIGHT/EARLY
SAT, AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE TN AND OH VALLEYS,
WITH AN UPPER LOW POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. RESULTANT DEEP SW FLOW WILL ADVECT A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER WATERS OF OVER
2"...INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE BY THE
END OF SATURDAY. IN THE INTERIM, INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND RELATIVE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS, SOME DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, WITH SOME THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY/PERHAPS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LINGERING THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN LIGHT OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOME INSTABILITY (ALBEIT
TEMPERED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER) SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A CONTINUED LOCALLY
HEAVY/ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FATE OF UPPER TROUGHING
AND THE FRONTAL ZONE/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A WEAK CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IN THAT
SCENARIO, SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY, THERE IS ALSO A BROAD CONSENSUS
THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSED JUST WEST OF THE CWA INTO
MID-WEEK, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING CLIMO+ POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
(I.E., SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS; ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY
SCATTERED ELSEWHERE) TUE THROUGH THU.
UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SOLID CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, MAX TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION-FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, ALBEIT LESS
WIDESPREAD (MAINLY CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS WEST OF KAVL) AND OF
SHORTER DURATION THAN ON THU MORNING. WINDS WILL MOSTLY FAVOR A
N DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE
4-7 KTS RANGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND PERHAPS GUSTY
AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING STARTING FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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