744
FXUS62 KGSP 141759
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SATURDAY
AVIATION FORECAST WAS FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE UPSTATE, NE GA, AND THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
2. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
AS WELL AS ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE UPSTATE, NE GA,
AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR HIGH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT SHORT OF RECORDS, ACROSS THE
AREA. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEEN EACH AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 105 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
SPOTTY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD BRIEFLY REACH 105 AS
WELL. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE KEEPING CONFIDENCE
LOW THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 110. THAT
SAID, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKELANDS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE, NE GA, AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
AS WELL AS ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
WITH UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST, MCVS FROM OVERNIGHT MCSS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WITH SATURDAY HAVING A
HIGHER PROBABILITY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD
THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY AND THE MCV TRACK MOVES BACK NORTH NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE KEEPS THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. CHANCES HIGHER ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZATION FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE TEMPO FOR KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
FIRST. HAVE PROB30S FOR THE OTHER SITES AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT DIRECT IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
CONVECTION ENDS BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
MOVING IN FROM THE NW WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE
USUALLY MORE FOGGY LITTLE TN VALLEY, SO JUST VFR IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW. CONVECTION RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS,
NNW AT KAVL, THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT THEN N TO NW FOR
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ070>072-082.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ070>072-
082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ008>014-
019-104>109.
RWH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page