087
FXUS62 KGSP 151806
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, COVERING
MOST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AS WELL
AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
THE SAME AREA ON SUNDAY. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
2. THERE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ELIMINATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS WELL AS
ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AS
WELL AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
THE SAME AREA ON SUNDAY. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY
OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK KEEPING HIGH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THIS MEANS
THE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. WITH
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS WELL, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY FOR
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS AFTERNOON'S ADVISORY. EXPECT ANOTHER ONE
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE SC UPSTATE AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA (EXCLUDING ONLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN NEAR THE
NC STATE LINE) AS WELL AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA, VALID 11 AM
THRU 8 PM SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE ANTICYCLONE MIGRATING WESTWARD
WITH A STEEP RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD, HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA DON'T SUBSTANTIALLY FALL UNTIL
FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
THE AREA UNTIL THEN, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES
WILL DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ELIMINATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS WELL AS
ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DESPITE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH DCAPE, REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WON'T MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS EXPECTED EITHER. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION, A FEW SEVERE STORMS, AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED FLOODING.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, A DEVELOPING SHALLOW TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS COULD HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA
WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR KAVL AND KHKY. HAVE
TEMPOS THERE FOR TSRA AND PROB30S ELSEWHERE. ALL BEGINNING NOW
EXCEPT FOR 19Z AT KCLT. CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
BUT UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL REACH KAVL. HAVE GONE WITH 6SM AND SCT005
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL. CAN'T RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY BUT
CHANCE TOO LOW FOR THE TAF. OVERALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS LOWER ON
SUNDAY, SO HAVEN'T INCLUDED IT AT KCLT YET, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, LOW END GUSTY NNW AT
KAVL, THIS AFTERNOON BECOME NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND, NNW AT KAVL, EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ070>072-082.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ070>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
RWH
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