657
FXUS62 KGSP 160528
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THE RECENT 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ONCE AGAIN FOR UPSTATE SC,
NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON.
2. DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, WITH A
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ONCE AGAIN FOR UPSTATE
SC, NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON.
STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT, WITH THE CORE
OF A A 599DM H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER PER THE LATEST RAP UA ANALYSIS. THIS PATTERN STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY, FOR MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE, NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA, WHERE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CREEP ABOVE 105 DEGREES DURING THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY. MORE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOME COOLING BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THEY'VE BACKED OFF ON TIMING UNTIL FRIDAY OR
EVEN NEXT SATURDAY. STILL THINK THERE WON'T BE A TRUE AIR MASS
CHANGE, SO MUCH AS A WEAK BURST OF COOLER AIR. STILL, ANY RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT WILL BE APPRECIATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK,
WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS - HOT AND HUMID, TO BE EXACT -
WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LAPSE RATES
WILL GENERALLY BE POOR, BUT RICH INSTABILITY WILL NONETHELESS
PROVIDE A GOOD ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE BEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE RIDGETOPS WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA
(POSSIBLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY). DEPENDING ON
TIMING, THIS COULD IMPROVE COVERAGE OVER SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR ON TAP FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CIRRUS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
USUAL POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR BEFORE DAWN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH INCREASING
CU COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON HOW MUCH,
IF ANY, OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT OPTED TO ADD PROB30S AT GSP, GMU, AND CLT THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ070>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-104>109.
MPR
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