912
FXUS62 KGSP 192316
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AS DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER FLOW, MAINTAINING A BROAD
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A STRONG TROUGH TO THE NORTH
EXPANDS SOUTHWARD, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OUT OF THE AREA, SHUNTING BETTER FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY
AND INTO THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUMMER MARCHES ON WITH
VALUES REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT
SKEPTICAL ON THE EXACT TIMING OF A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS LATE AS
SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A SMALL AMOUNT OF RELIEF FROM
HOT TEMPS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CHURN OVER CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED OUT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CONUS. THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS FURTHER TO THE NORTH FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH DIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THE EXACT TIMING, BUT
DOES AGREE ON A FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR INTO
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TICK UP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NC PIEDMONT. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD
BECOME STRONG, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND SHUNTS RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND PICKUP
OUT OF THE W TO SW LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE KAVL MAINTAINS A NE COMPONENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
MORNING AND LOSING STEAM BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUD DEBRIS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER IT
GETS ADVECTED FAR ENOUGH INTO KAVL, SO KEPT ANY MENTION OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. DID INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/CP
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