627
FXUS62 KGSP 050018
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HEAT
INDEX RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING SUNDAY.
2. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING SUNDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF
THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. A QUICK PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, UNDERNEATH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL MORE OR LESS COMPLETE THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. MEANWHILE,
SHORT WAVE AXIS ROTATING AROUND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA, THOUGH NOT IN TIME
TO SAVE SATURDAY FROM BEING ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID ONE. UNLIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH,
THE DEWPOINT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS MUCH. THE CAMS SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WON'T OCCUR UNTIL 18Z AT THE EARLIEST,
WHICH WON'T PREVENT US FROM HEATING UP CONSIDERABLY. THE RESULT
WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. THE WAY THE FORECAST IS PRESENTLY CONSTRUCTED, AN AREA OF
MAX HEAT INDEX ABOVE 105 WRAPS AROUND FROM THE LAKELANDS AND LOWER
PIEDMONT OF SC TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WAYS THAT OUR FORECAST COULD BE WRONG,
BUT IN PARTICULAR IT DEPENDS ON THE LATER CONVECTION. SHOULD
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
DAY OR IF AN ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTS DOWN FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION, THE TEMPS COULD STAY A BIT COOLER AND THUS KEEP THE
HEAT INDEX IN CHECK. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA. THAT BEING SAID, IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ALL
WITH POTENTIALLY LOTS OF OUTDOOR PLANS, IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ISSUE
A HEAT ADVISORY IN THIS SITUATION. FORTUNATELY, SATURDAY SHOULD BE
THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY. TEMPS COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING
ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALAS,
A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT IT TO PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY GIVEN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT, WHICH RESULTED IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER A LARGER AREA THAN EXPECTED. THE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
2000-3000 J/KG OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE WITH A MINIMAL CAP, WE JUST LACK
A GOOD TRIGGER OTHER THAN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE MTNS. WE
HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS DCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG,
SO IF A STORM CAN MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT IT HAS IN ITS SURROUNDINGS,
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN. ON THE ONE HAND,
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE PLENTY GOING FOR IT IN TERMS OF
INGREDIENTS. THE RAP DEPICTS MLCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR A BOUNDARY TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THAT'S USUALLY ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS AND THE SPC EXPANDED THE SEVERE
RISK OVER THE FCST AREA A BIT IN THE UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE CAMS WERE SOMEWHAT DISAPPOINTING IN THEIR DEPICTION
OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY, THOUGH THE PRESENCE
OF A BOUNDARY COULD BE INFERRED. IN THIS CASE, I WOULD TRUST THE
FORCING/ENVIRONMENT IN THE MODEL MORE THAN THE PERCEIVED LACK OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL. PRECIP PROBS WERE INCREASED ABOVE WHAT THE
MODEL BLEND OFFERED, BUT MIGHT STILL BE TOO LOW. EXPERIENCE TELLS
ME THAT STRETCHES OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OFTEN END WITH A ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TRIGGERED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT, SO THAT RAISES
EXPECTATIONS IN LINE WITH A SLIGHT RISK.
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, THOUGH WITHOUT THE SEVERE
RISK. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS BELOW NORMAL FOR PRECIP COVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KHKY, WHERE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TO THEIR NW MAY IMPACT THEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. IN ADDITION, THE EVER-PRESENT FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE
MTN VALLEYS WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS HAVE REMAINED VFR AT KAVL AND WITH A LACK OF ANY
PRECIP SO FAR TODAY, I DON'T THINK ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
THERE. FOR SATURDAY, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CON-
VECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AROUND 18 TO 20Z TOMORROW ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF OUR FCST AREA. AS SUCH, I HAVE PROB30S FOR TSRA
AT ALL OUR TAF SITES BEGINNING IN THIS TIME WINDOW. WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY/EVENING TOMORROW. THEY SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND FAVOR A S TO SW DIRECTION (OR JUST LIGHT AND VRB AT SOME
SITES) TONIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY WILL THEN GO WLY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOGGLE FROM N OF W TO S OF W FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY/EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICK UP MARGINALLY FROM THE NW LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MORE
SUPPRESSED WEATHER RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ026-028-
029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ071-072-
082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ009>014-
019.
JPT/PM
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