845
FXUS62 KGSP 052044
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#656. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED BEHIND THE TRAILING RAIN
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
GA, THE LOWER PIEDMONT OF SC, AND UP TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
METRO CHARLOTTE, BUT THAT WAS COMING TO A CLOSE FOR THE DAY. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA.
2. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE
LAKELANDS AND LOWER PIEDMONT OF SC TO PORTIONS OF THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST GA, THE LOWER PIEDMONT OF SC, AND UP TO THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF METRO CHARLOTTE, BUT THAT WAS COMING TO A CLOSE FOR THE
DAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA.
WE CONTINUE TO PARE DOWN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS DEEP
CONVECTION PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ONLY THE LOWER
PIEDMONT/LAKELANDS REMAIN IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AND THE STORMS WILL
MOVE OUT WITHIN AN HOUR. AT THIS RATE, THE ENTIRE WATCH IN THE GSP
FORECAST AREA WILL BE CANCELED BY 6 PM OR SO. IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL
THAT THE AIR MASS WILL RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY TO POSE A NEW THREAT
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY.
THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO CREEP UPWARD
ON SUNDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH. A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO FORCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS AND WE RETAIN SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY STEEPEN THE LAPSE
RATES IN THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS 2500-3500 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE AND
MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THERE MIGHT NOT BE AS MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZATION, BUT A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
ANTICYLCONE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE
LAKELANDS AND LOWER PIEDMONT OF SC TO PORTIONS OF THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT IN THE WAKE OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE COOLED DOWN AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT BE CANCELED EARLY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND THUS TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
HOT DAY OF THE STRING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY, POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON. A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES
AND PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE RETURNING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY, IT GETS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF MOVING PAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHORT-CIRCUITS THE WARMUP.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
POSSIBLY EVEN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME TERMINALS, OUTSIDE
OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SO MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAVL
AND KAND AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THESE TERMINALS SEEING STORMS.
INTRODUCED TEMPOS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR BOTH
PROB30S AND TEMPOS IS LOW AS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN REGARDING TSRA ACTIVITY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
EARLY OR LATE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BE NW AT KAVL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT WSW/SW BEFORE
TOGGLING MORE WNW/NW BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TOGGLE MORE N/NE.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS SUNDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009>014-019.
PM
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