933
FXUS62 KGSP 052130
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE REST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#656. ALSO CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA.
2. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. MAKE
SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
AIR CONDITIONING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO CREEP UPWARD ON
SUNDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
STORMS AND WE RETAIN SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT MAY STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR
ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS 2500-3500 J/KG
OF SFC-BASED CAPE AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THERE MIGHT NOT BE
AS MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION, BUT A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
ANTICYLCONE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 70S AND 80S. HAVE CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH WILL STILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL WITH
HEAT INDICES OVER 100, A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY, POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
MODIFIES AND PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RETURNING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY, IT
GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF MOVING
PAST LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHORT-CIRCUITS THE WARMUP.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
POSSIBLY EVEN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME TERMINALS, OUTSIDE
OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SO MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAVL
AND KAND AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THESE TERMINALS SEEING STORMS.
INTRODUCED TEMPOS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR BOTH
PROB30S AND TEMPOS IS LOW AS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN REGARDING TSRA ACTIVITY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
EARLY OR LATE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BE NW AT KAVL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT WSW/SW BEFORE
TOGGLING MORE WNW/NW BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TOGGLE MORE N/NE.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS SUNDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/TDP
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