711
FXUS62 KGSP 070545
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-85 AND WEST OF I-77. A LOW-END FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-85 AND WEST OF I-77. A LOW-END FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW HAS
ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT PROGRESSES W/SW, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
85 AND WEST OF I-77. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE, SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOW MOVING. SLOW SHOWER MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO A LOW-END FLOOD THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK. MAINLY ISOLATED NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NE'LY FLOW COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND WILL LEAD
TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. FINALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY!
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL,
HOWEVER, ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TRACKS EASTWARD AND ATTEMPTS TO DIG AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GSP FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY
END UP NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY IMPACTING KAVL AND THE SC UPSTATE
TERMINALS. KAND MAY NOT SEE SHRA DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA IS FLOATING AROUND NEAR KHKY, THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SO WENT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. KCLT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED EVERYWHERE BUT KCLT AS OF 05Z.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY
IFR CIGS AND IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED. ANY SHRA THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBYS SLIGHTLY SO HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED FOR IN
THE MORNING TEMPOS. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT, ESPECIALLY
CIGS, THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AT KCLT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS NOT SEEING VFR
RETURN UNTIL EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND E/SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW-END
GUSTS OF ~16-20 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRIER AND VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH MID-WEEK OUTSIDE
OF MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. RAIN CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BACK THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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