336
FXUS62 KGSP 071029
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF I-77. A LOW-END FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
WEST OF I-77. A LOW-END FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF I-77.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY WEST OF I-77. WEAK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW-END
FLOOD THREAT AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY
ISOLATED NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NE'LY FLOW
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS TODAY. FINALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY!
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL,
HOWEVER, ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TRACKS EASTWARD AND ATTEMPTS TO DIG AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GSP FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY
END UP NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHRA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH MID-MORNING. SHRA SHOULD IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBYS SLIGHTLY SO
HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TEMPOS. THE NC TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEEING MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCLT WHICH
IS CURRENTLY VFR (AS OF 10Z). CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, LIFTING
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND E/SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW-END GUSTS OF ~16-20 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VFR SHOULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS REACHING KAVL OVERNIGHT IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK OUTSIDE OF MORNING MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
BACK THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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