093
FXUS62 KGSP 071725
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LARGELY SETTLED AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
2. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LARGELY SETTLED AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
A DEEP UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN WEDGE-LIKE FASHION. RELATIVELY COOL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE; WHERE SKIES CLEARED EARLIER IN THE DAY
EAST OF I-77, TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE LOWER 80S; AS THE
CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS, WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA
TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND 80 BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES
COULD STILL OCCUR FROM THE REMAINING CLOUDS THOUGH DRYING GENERALLY
SHOULD OCCUR ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT
OF A SHOWER IN THE SUNNY AREA OVER THE SMOKIES WHERE THAT DRYING
WILL TAKE LONGEST TO OCCUR. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS,
OR UPSLOPE CLOUDS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT WITH CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THEN
TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO RETURNING.
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS EASTWARD TUESDAY, AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES,
LEAVING A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST IN
RESPONSE. THOUGH ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT OR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, PROFILES WILL BE SUBSIDENT
AND DRY AND PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY DAYTIME SKIES THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SUCH THAT TEMPS RETURN
TO ABOUT NORMAL TUESDAY, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AS
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS REESTABLISHED.
SUBTLE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS DO LOOK TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY. DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE, AT LEAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AS TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY TREND STILL HIGHER. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN THE DEEP SOUTH, PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTHWEST; THE SIGNAL FOR THE
TROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WEAKER,
AND ACCORDINGLY POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THU FOR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THERE DOES APPEAR CONSENSUS FOR THE FRONT TO STRETCH
OUT IN A ZONAL ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC CIRCA FRIDAY, AS THE PARENT TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE. THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
APPEARS THAT DAY. ANOTHER TRAILING WEAK SHORTWAVE DOES APPEAR IN
MOST MODEL OUTPUT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR OR WEST OF THE CWA. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
MORE OR LESS STALLS FOR THE WEEKEND AND AIRMASS CHANGE APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE-AVERAGE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS FRIDAY
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX TOP OUT NEAR 100, WITH HI IN THE UPPER 90S
OTHERWISE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DISSIPATING STRATUS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
CLEARING/SCATTERING IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE PERIOD AT KAVL
AND KAND. AT THE OTHER SITES, STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
MVFR-VFR THRESHOLD AND CIGS BETWEEN FL025 AND FL035 COULD REOCCUR
THROUGH 20-21Z. BEYOND THAT CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND/OR SCATTER. AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KAVL, MAINLY FEW AT OR ABOVE 090 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
IF NOT SKC. KAVL MAY SEE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT AND A DAYBREAK
RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A RESULT. PREDOMINANTLY NE
TO ENE WIND ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT KAVL WHICH PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN VRB FOR A WHILE AND THEN FLIP TO SE. KCLT MAY EXPERIENCE
A CROSSWIND AT TIMES TONIGHT, AND LIKELY ALSO GOING ESE FOR A TIME.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH WED OUTSIDE OF MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
RETURN THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW
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