256
FXUS62 KGSP 091027
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING STARTING FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING STARTING FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY.
FLATTENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AROUND. A MORE HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS
STARTING THURSDAY, PEAKING ON FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE GSP FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PER
THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS MAY PREVENT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM PUSHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GSP FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT MAY EVEN REACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE
FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RETURN AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING FRIDAY, LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SW'LY FLOW LEADS TO AN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PWATS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PEAK ~1.8" TO 2.25"
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL, THERE
COULD BE A LOW-END HYDRO THREAT FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD SEE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT LOWER EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PWATS DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
ANTICYLCONE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT
WHILE KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HEAT DOME WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AND IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MAY
SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FALL CANNOT COME SOON ENOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPED AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP AT
KHKY THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THUS, MAINTAINED THE
TEMPOS AT KAVL AND KHKY AND INTRODUCED TEMPOS FOR THE SC TERMINALS.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND VFR OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
S'LY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GO MORE SW/WSW OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BACK DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS) FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PROBABILITY OF MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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