745
FXUS62 KGSP 241747
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ARE DELAYED UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS DRIER STARTS
MOVING IN, BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FRIDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS DRIER
STARTS MOVING IN, BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MTNS BASED ON TEMP
TRENDS AT MIDDAY. MEANWHILE, LOCATIONS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE, SUCH AS THE SMOKIES AND SOUTHWEST PART OF NC
SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AIDED BY WEAK BUOYANCY
OF 500 J/KG OVER THE RIDGETOPS.
THE WEDGE SHOULD START BREAKING DOWN AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING
AND THE UPPER LOW OVER WV THIS PAST MORNING ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. ONCE THIS HAPPENS,
THE FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WILL DRAIN THE
COOL POOL EAST OF THE MTNS AND THAT WILL BE IT, WITH MOST OF THE
SKY BECOMING CLEAR BY DAYBREAK. THE ONLY MINOR PROBLEM COULD
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE DRY AIR
COMES IN ALOFT FIRST AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE
AT THE SFC. MANY TIMES IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS, WE GET A PERIOD
OF A FEW HOURS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS, SOMETIMES TO THE
POINT WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. THE GUIDANCE
DOESN'T SUPPORT IT RIGHT NOW, BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS AND WE
WILL MONITOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, IT LOOKS LIKE SMOOTH SAILING. THE MODELS SHOW
US TRAPPED UNDER A COOL AND DRY CYCLONIC N TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY, WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN. TEMPS STAY COOL ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND PERHAPS
DOWNRIGHT CHILLY FOR LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOTS OF
PLACES DROPPING DOWN TO 45-50 DEGREES. RIDGETOPS ABOVE 5000 FEET
COULD GET DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S! THE SFC HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE STUCK TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT WILL
BE BLOCKED BY THE BIG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST, SO AS A RESULT
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN-PLACE AND SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE
SPECTACULAR EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. THE PATTERN GETS UN-STUCK DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT BY THEN,
MODEL DIFFERENCES INJECT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST. EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT
WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE COMES BACK UP FROM THE
SOUTH, BUT DETAILS ARE VERY SKETCHY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STARTING OUT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST AND ENDED, BUT
A FEW PATCHES REMAINED AROUND KCLT WITH ASSOCIATED IFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS, THUS THE TEMPO FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THAT
CAN PROBABLY BE AMENDED AWAY BEFORE 20Z. WIND WILL BE NE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE MTNS. AS WE START TO
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE NORTHERLY,
THE LOW CLOUD DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING. THAT COULD SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF FOG, OWING TO THE
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC AND THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. FOR
NOW, ONLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE KAVL AND PLACES OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS LIKE KHKY GET IT, BUT OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A CHANCE AT
THE FOG RESTRICTION. ONCE THAT MIXES OUT FRIDAY AFTER SUNRISE,
VFR AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.
OUTLOOK: VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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