160
FXUS62 KGSP 270530
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE NBM IS TRENDING LOWER FOR POPS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
OUTSIDE OF BELOW NORMAL LOWS RETURNING TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF BELOW NORMAL LOWS RETURNING TONIGHT.
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY (PER THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS). THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NBM KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS AROUND ON THURSDAY AND HAS
TRENDED LOWER FOR POPS ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON POPS RETURNING
FRIDAY REMAINS LOW AS THE GFS MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THE
EURO AND CANADIAN SHOW SOME MOISTURE RETURNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
ON POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNING TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NEXT SUNDAY. NBM
POPS REFLECT THIS, SHOWING CHANCE (30% TO 54%) TO LIKELY (54% TO
70%) POPS. HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WILL END UP NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL, TRENDING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR NORMAL.
BELOW NORMAL LOWS RETURN TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, OPTED TO BLEND
IN SOME LOWER DEWPOINT GUIDANCE AS NBM DEWPOINTS ARE OFTEN TOO HIGH
IN PATTERNS LIKE THIS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. MTN VALLEY
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE USUAL AREAS, BUT LIKE THE PAST
FEW MORNINGS, IT PROBABLY WON'T REACH KAVL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A NWLY TO NLY DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT
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