565
FXUS62 KGSP 271047
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
OUTSIDE OF BELOW NORMAL LOWS RETURNING TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF BELOW NORMAL LOWS RETURNING TONIGHT.
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY (PER THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS). THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NBM REMAINS DRY ON THURSDAY AND HAS TRENDED LOWER FOR
POPS ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON POPS RETURNING FRIDAY REMAINS LOW AS
THE GFS REMAINS DRY WHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE SOME MOISTURE
RETURNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNING TO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY NEXT SUNDAY. NBM POPS REFLECT THIS, SHOWING CHANCE (30%
TO 54%) TO LIKELY (54% TO 70%) POPS. HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WILL END
UP NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL, TRENDING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP
BACK NEAR NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL LOWS RETURN TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY,
BLENDED IN SOME LOWER GUIDANCE AS NBM DEWPOINTS ARE OFTEN TOO HIGH
IN PATTERNS LIKE THIS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MTN VALLEY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE USUAL AREAS, BUT LIKE
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS IT HASN'T REACHED KAVL. WE'LL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING,
BUT AGAIN, IT PROBABLY WON'T IMPACT KAVL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NWLY TO NLY DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT
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