435
FXUS62 KGSP 280532
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY,
WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO
THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
A STALLED NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NY/NJ BIGHT
THRU MONDAY, THEN START TO DRIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKEN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY, STABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN ATOP THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY, PEAKING THURSDAY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 80S WED, AND MID TO
UPPER 80S THU AND FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE
ON FRIDAY, WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
T.C. POLO IN NW MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A
FAST OUTLIER WITH THE TROUGH AND QUICKLY ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE EC AND CANADIAN KEEP FRIDAY
DRY, BUT ENOUGH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE POPS,
SUCH THAT THE NBM HAS NOW TRENDED BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
FRIDAY. HAVING SAID THAT, THE NBM POPS SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN THE UPPER
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND WEAK RETURN FLOW. BY SATURDAY, RETURN
FLOW SHOULD START TO RAMP UP, AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN ~1030 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR THE
NORTHEAST THAT MAY PRODUCE A CAD EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTING ATOP THE WEDGE. THE NBM HAS TRENDED COOLER SAT
AND SUN DUE TO POTENTIAL CAD, WITH SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL AREAS OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKE THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT (GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS) AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NWLY TO NLY
DIRECTION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TO
CALM LATER THIS EVENING AT MOST SITES.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY. MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT/RWH
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