013
FXUS62 KGSP 280641
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECTED ONSET OF RAIN HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, SO TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN
OF SALT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. RAIN CHANCES COULD
RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT BECOME MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
A SLOW-MOVING NOR'EASTER REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COAST, DRIVING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY CAA THAT HAS KEPT THE
CAROLINAS CLEAR, DRY, AND RELATIVELY COOL. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN,
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS APPALACHIA FALLING WELL INTO THE 40S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT, WITH THE BULK
OF GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN,
WHILE UPPER RIDGING SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN TANDEM
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, BUT THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE MEANS IT'LL
TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS TO MANIFEST AS ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASING
HUMIDITY. THE LATEST ROUND OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO MORE HEAVILY SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS'S FASTER SOLUTION,
WITH RAIN ARRIVING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE SOME 1/2 TO
2/3 OF THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL FAVOR RAIN ARRIVING
LATER...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY SHOULD MIGRATE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SIGNAL REMAINS STRONG FOR THIS HIGH TO BECOME WELL-PLACED FOR A
SYNOPTICALLY-INDUCED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT BY SATURDAY. THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL WOULD CONTRIBUTE STRONGLY TO DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE,
SO THE NATURE OF SUCH A CAD EVENT WILL BE TIED TO HOW THE FORECAST
FOR RAINFALL, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL AREAS OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKE THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT (GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS) AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NWLY TO NLY
DIRECTION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TO
CALM LATER THIS EVENING AT MOST SITES.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY. MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR
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