145
FXUS62 KGSP 161113
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY THAT SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A FREEZE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
2. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLEST AIR OF
THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP LOW
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY,
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TODAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GET HUNG UP. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFSET ANY
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSE TO RECORDS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING, THE FRONT SHOULD GET DRIVEN EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THEN TEMPS WILL START DROPPING STEADILY AND THE
WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE NW. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS UNLIKELY
SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE TEMPS START OUT TOO WARM AND THE COLD AIR
IS TOO FAR TO THE WEST, BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 35F. THE TREND IN THE NBM HAS BEEN TO CREEP DOWNWARD WITH
WIND GUST POTENTIAL, AND THIS RUN DOES MORE OF THE SAME. THUS,
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS ANYWHERE BUT
THE PEAKS AND RIDGES ABOVE 6K FEET IS VERY LOW. A WIND ADVISORY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
A MORE INTERESTING TREND IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNS THE PRECIP
PROBS. WE STILL EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER WHERE
W-NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT PRECIP GENERATION. HOWEVER, MODELS
SHOW THE MAIN VORT MAX TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH SUCH THAT MID-LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED, BUT
THE FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO ACT UPON WHATEVER MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE MTNS WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT AFEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND MT MITCHELL, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP LOW
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
THAT WILL BE TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND ROUGHLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE NEW GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, WHICH IS TO SAY THE HIGH CENTER NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SETTLE OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING, THE TREND IN THE
MODEL BLEND IS COLDER. IN SPITE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT LOOKING
QUITE AS FAVORABLE, THE LOW TEMP FORECAST HAS DROPPED FURTHER,
TO THE POINT WHERE THE NORTHERN FOUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ARE LIKELY
TO HAVE LOW TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES,
A FREEZE WATCH MIGHT BE ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT. FARTHER SOUTH,
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAM MOUNTAINS ALSO
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING 32F. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
AND TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST IN THE BIG VALLEYS. IT WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE FROST IN PLACES ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND NW PIEDMONT. WE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE FROST POTENTIAL WITH
THE FIRST COLD AIR MASS IN THE AUTUMN, SO SOME DOWNWARD DRIFT IS
ANTICIPATED. THE AIR MASS MODIFIES A BIT BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE FROST POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN
THE SAME LOCATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE WOULD BE THE NW/N FLOW
BETWEEN THE TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER BASIN. TEMPS WOULD CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY ONWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MORE WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG HAS FORMED
THAN EXPECTED, WITH LIFR (AND EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
TAF SITES RIGHT AROUND 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE EXCEPTION IS KCLT,
WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z AT THE TAF SITES, BUT COULD LINGER AN HOUR
OR TWO LONGER IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR CONDITION SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OUT OF THE SW AND BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTN. EXPECT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING, SHIFTING WINDS TO NW AND LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY. A
BAND OF LOW-VFR CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND KCLT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH KAVL,
BUT LOW-VFR OR MVFR CIGS MAY FORM LATE THIS EVENING THERE.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW-END GUSTS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY EAST OF THE MTNS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD DIRECTLY IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939
KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939
1925
KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907
1911
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/PM
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