755
FXUS62 KGSP 171041
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT HAS BEEN LOWERED BY ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. THE
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. TO THE EAST
OF THE WARNING, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA, ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY, AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GA, THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY, AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS WILL DROP DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GA, THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY, AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
NOW THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, THE COOL-DOWN WILL COMMENCE BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SHORT
LINEAR SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR, WITH ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
BROAD BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FORCING IMPROVES WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MUCH OF
THIS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF I-77 AT DAYBREAK,
AND MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH
THE DAY AFTER THE UPPER WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. INDICATIONS
ARE CONSISTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR SO COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN COMES TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND SKY CLEARS OUT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE DOWNWARD CREEP OF LOW TEMPS CONTINUES AGAIN THIS
CYCLE. THE CONSENSUS WAS TO LOWER THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT BELOW WHAT
IS SEEN IN THE NBM, WHICH TRACKS BECAUSE WE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE
THE COLD AIR IN THESE EARLY AUTUMN EVENTS. THUS, THE FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. TO THE EAST OF THE WARNING,
FROST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM THE THERMAL BELTS, SO A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ADDED.
BEYOND THAT, THE UPPER PATTERN GRINDS TO A HALT AS THE STRONG
UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND THEN SET UP SHOP OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODIFICATION OF THE AIR
MASS ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND BY 3-5 DEGREES THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
THE POINT WE SHOULD BE BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD. WE WILL WAIT AND
SEE HOW WE FARE TONIGHT BEFORE ACTING ON ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: GUSTY NNW TO NNE WINDS EXPECTED THRU THE
AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER
VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH MVFR AND LOWER CIGS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BROKEN OUT AND IS CROSSING KCLT
AT THE TIME OF 12Z TAF ISSUANCE, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. CHANCES OF ANY MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS
AT KCLT CONTINUE TO DECREASE, SO NO MENTION IN THE LATEST TAF. THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THRU THE MORNING, THEN SHOULD START TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE AFTN, LEADING TO SKC BY EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN, THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH LIGHT N/NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: BREEZY NE WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY
AFTN. OTHERWISE, DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ035-064-065-
501>507-509.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ101>103.
ARK/PM
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