065
FXUS62 KGSP 181749
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AS THE
CENTER SHIFTS OVER NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST KEEPS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STRUGGLING
TO FULLY DECOUPLE AND A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION IN PLACE. AS
A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
BUT STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
NORTH KEEPS DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THINGS AND HOLDS FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM. THUS, DECIDED TO FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A
FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT IN THE ZONES THAT ARE
STILL ACTIVATED. CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY AREAS OF FROST IN THE NC
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SUPPORTING THE NOR'EASTER GRADUALLY
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND BECOMES ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER
CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY MIDWEEK. THIS SETUP HELPS TO REINFORCE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY,
THERE ARE NO MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE EACH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AND
REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LOW-END GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TOGGLE MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, KEEPING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS VERY LIMITED MONDAY MORNING. WINDS PICKUP OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AGAIN AT 5-10 KTS ON MONDAY, WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS FREQUENT
AS THIS PAST WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC
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