954
FXUS62 KGSP 190550
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2. GRADUAL WARMING IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON TICKS UP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 15-20 MPH WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON MIXING, LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND DRYING OUT RH
VALUES INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE RH
VALUES DIP, WIND GUSTS OF 15-25MPH APPEAR TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE MILD, BUT STILL UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE INGREDIENTS DO
ELEVATE THE RISK FOR FIRE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GRADUAL WARMING IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAIN MILD AND BENIGN. OFF THE EASTERN
COAST, GUIDANCE SPINS UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE AN A RIDGE OUT
WEST AMPLIFIES WITH THE SOUTHEAST STUCK IN THE MIDDLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING MUCH DRIER AIR LOCKED IN PLACE AND
RAIN CHANCES AWAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A SNAIL'S PACE
UPTICK IN DAILY HIGHS, BUT SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. WHAT THIS LOOKS LIKE IS PLEASANT AUTUMN TEMPS IN THE 60S
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS, GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF MOISTURE, DIP INTO THE
CRISP RANGE OF 40S EACH NIGHT AND PATCHY UPPER 30S AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, WEATHER IS QUIET, DRY AND FINALLY
REFLECTING A SEMBLANCE OF THE FALL SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS, INCREASING WITH SOME LOW-END
GUSTS AT KCLT FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTN. A FEW LOW-END GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY OF THE OTHER TAF SITES THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP
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