298
FXUS62 KGSP 191741
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER AND DEEPER MIXING
DEPICTED IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
TWEAKED MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7
PM MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
2. CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CP AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY, STOKING EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY. WITH
SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUING BENEATH AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED
WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY,
WITH DEEP MIXING PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR GUSTS OF 15-20MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN.
THAT SAME MIXING IS ALREADY ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DROP DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RH
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OVERLAP
BETWEEN CRITICAL RHS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT BEST,
BUT WILL NONETHELESS PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SPREAD
OF OUTDOOR FIRES. AS A RESULT, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND EVEN ZONES ACROSS NC AND SC
SHOULD EXPECT LOW-END FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS PRONOUNCED TOMORROW, AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PULLS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS IN RESPONSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO EXHIBIT MORE
PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE ATOP THE PBL, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
DEEP MIXING. SOME DEGREE OF A DEWPOINT DROP AND ANOTHER BREEZY
AFTERNOON ARE NONETHELESS EXPECTED, BUT RH VALUES SHOULD CRASH LESS
THAN ON MONDAY, AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LOWER, AND LESS FREQUENT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COMPLETE LOSS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND AN EVEN
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD REDUCE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
EVEN FURTHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA-
LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, STATIONARY
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA, BEFORE
THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR OUR PART, WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY-CLEAR SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS MAY
BE A SOLID CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY (WHICH FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, IS STILL IN THE MID 70S!). LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM AN UNSTEADY CONSENSUS FOR A WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS USUAL AT THIS TIMESCALE,
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SIX TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A N/NE
WIND OF 5-10KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AVL, WHERE TERRAIN WILL KEEP
WINDS MORE NNW AND A LITTLE LIGHTER. SKC SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT AVL AROUND
DAWN ON TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
N/NE WINDS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, BUT LIGHTER, AND CURRENTLY WITH
NO MENTIONABLE GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR
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