096
FXUS62 KGSP 200454
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RH VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TRENDING DRIER FOR TODAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
2. CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE DRY AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES KEEPS A LOW-END FIRE THREAT
FOR THE AREA. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT 10-15
MPH, WHICH COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON MIXING, LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND
DRYING OUT RH VALUES INTO THE 25-35% RANGE. GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH IN
THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIP AS LOW AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE TICK UP INTO THE MID 70S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 25% OR DIP SLIGHTLY
BELOW, ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAIN MILD AND BENIGN. A RIDGE OUT
WEST AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, KEEPING MUCH DRIER AIR LOCKED IN PLACE AND SHUNTING ALL RAIN
CHANCES. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A BRIEF DRY CAD ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. NO
PRECIP BUT IT DOES TICK TEMPS DOWN WITH REINFORCED DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE BRIEF DIP ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS, GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF MOISTURE, DIP INTO THE CRISP
RANGE OF 40S EACH NIGHT AND PATCHY UPPER 30S AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT N/NE WIND THRU
DAYBREAK, THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS RETURNING DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP
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