456
FXUS62 KGSP 201819
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS BELOW NBM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
NBM TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
2. DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING.
WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DECENT DAYTIME MIXING HAVE ALREADY
LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS, DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA, LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING NEAR 25% OR LESS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
FIRE DANGER THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITY ON WHETHER YOU
CAN BURN TODAY. IF YOU DO BURN, USE EXTREME CAUTION SINCE FIRES CAN
QUICKLY GET OUT OF HAND UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL LOW STALLS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AWAY FROM MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
MORE SOUTH AND EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING DRY
CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL, COOLER HIGHS SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE IS AT ITS STRONGEST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD END UP AT LEAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT
COULD TREND COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAY RETURN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE WEDGE COULD LINGER WITH
NO TRUE EROSION MECHANISM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR FREEZE CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ACTIVE. IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ABLE TO RELAX ENOUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THANKS TO GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. KAVL AND KAND DID NOT SEE FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOP THIS MORNING SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS AT
THESE TERMINALS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY N/NE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY NW AT KAVL. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
VRB TO CALM AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KHKY AND KAVL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL
RANGE MOSTLY FROM 3-8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS
RETURN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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