330
FXUS62 KGSP 211029
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE UPCOMING 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY, STARTING AT NOON AND
RUNNING THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
2. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY, STARTING AT NOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY, BUT MAYBE WITH AFTERNOON RH NOT QUITE
AS LOW AS TUESDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH
SHOULD MIX DOWN TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NBM HAS
NOT RESPONDED ENOUGH TO THE DRY AIR, SO DEWPOINTS AGAIN TODAY WILL
BE BLENDED WITH THE DRIER CAM SOLUTIONS, RESULTING IN MIN RH THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN IN THE MIDDLE 20S PERCENT. THOUGH WIND WILL BE LIGHT,
THE CONSENSUS WAS TO ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT BASED ON
THE DRY FUELS AND LOW RH THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITY ON WHETHER
YOU CAN BURN TODAY. IF YOU DO BURN, USE EXTREME CAUTION SINCE
FIRES CAN QUICKLY GET OUT OF HAND UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
A MID/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WILL GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE
IN THE NRN STREAM THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY CARRY IT OFF TO THE
EAST. IN THE MEAN TIME, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE OUR
MAIN WEATHER FACTOR, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LIKELY MIXING DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE RH DOWN
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES IN THE MID-20S. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON (SEE PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGE). AS
FOR TEMPS, THEY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE WARM SIDE
OF NORMAL.
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY OF SORTS. ALTHO THE OLD UPPER
LOW GETS ASSIMILATED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
THE OVERALL HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, OUR REGION COMES MORE UNDER A N TO NW
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THAT IS SO LARGE
IT SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS HIGH TAKES
ON A MORE CLASSICAL DRY COLD AIR DAMMING PARENT HIGH POSTURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE ONSET OF THIS
NEW REGIME DROPS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, BUT
THEN DROPS THEM FURTHER TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE STRING. SATURDAY NIGHT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE ANYWHERE THAT OUR
PROGRAM REMAINS ACTIVE, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FROST POTENTIAL
IF WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH. THE HIGH LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS. AS WE GET INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER
PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AGAIN AND DEAMPLIFIES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION AND THEN WE HAVE A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BEFORE A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT,
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS POOR, SO PRECIP PROBS WERE KEPT BELOW 10
PERCENT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: NO CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS. VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND SOME OF THE LARGER LAKES AGAIN TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE N TO NNE, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/PM
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