336
FXUS62 KGSP 211803
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
MIXING POTENTIAL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THRU 7 PM THIS EVENING.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY, THEN STEADILY RETURN TO
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA THRU 7 PM THIS EVENING.
DRY, SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING
AND INCREASINGLY FEATURE LITTLE TO NO INVERSION ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. AS A RESULT, STILL THINK THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO
CRASH THIS AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN RHS FALLING TO CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT IS
FORTUNATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN ENOUGH THAT
LITTLE TO NO OVERLAP BETWEEN CRITICAL RHS AND DANGEROUSLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE.
NONETHELESS, EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOW-END FIRE
DANGER, AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY, THEN STEADILY
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, MAINTAINING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY, AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND, INSTIGATING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN COLD AIR DAMMING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S...COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FROST POTENTIAL. SANS ANY GOOD UPPER FORCING, IT STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP WITH CAD...AND THE AIR MASS WILL SIMPLY MODIFY GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF LIFE
BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD, AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE. BY THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE SETTING IN, BUT INCIPIENT DRY AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEVERELY
LIMIT RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SIX TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVL, WHERE THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY WILL KEEP WINDS MORE OF A N/NW BEARING. SOME VALLEY FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO
AVL BEFORE DAWN. NE WINDS AND SKC SKIES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR
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