336
FXUS62 KGSP 212332
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
MIXING POTENTIAL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY, THEN STEADILY RETURN TO
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW.
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING AND INCREASINGLY FEATURE LITTLE TO NO INVERSION ATOP
THE MIXED LAYER. AS A RESULT, STILL THINK THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR
DEWPOINTS TO CRASH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN RHS FALLING
TO CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT IS FORTUNATE THAT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN ENOUGH THAT LITTLE TO
NO OVERLAP BETWEEN CRITICAL RHS AND DANGEROUSLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
TAKE PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY, THEN STEADILY
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, MAINTAINING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY, AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND, INSTIGATING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN COLD AIR DAMMING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S...COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FROST POTENTIAL. SANS ANY GOOD UPPER FORCING, IT STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP WITH CAD...AND THE AIR MASS WILL SIMPLY MODIFY GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF LIFE
BEGINNING SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD, AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE. BY THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC UPPER PATTERN WILL
BE SETTING IN, BUT INCIPIENT DRY AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEVERELY
LIMIT RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVING SAID THAT, MOISTURE IS BEGINNING
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, SO THERE MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ALONG LAKES AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THU
MORNING. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS
IN THE TAFS...ALTHOUGH A TEMPO FOR 6SM/FEW001 FEW003 IS INCLUDED
AT KHKY FROM 10-12Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY LIGHT NW=>NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/MPR
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