683  
FNUS71 KGYX 210905  
FWSGYX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TNC WELLS BARRENS PRESERVE RX FIRE...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
505 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (207) 688-3224, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE  
MORNING AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THAN  
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CLOUDS INVADING LATER.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES  
FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES AS THE FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN MAINE BEFORE  
CHANCES TAPER TOWARDS NOON FRIDAY.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............52 INCREASING TO 55 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...71.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (19300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................8 INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 13 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........46 46 46 51 51 51 51 51 51  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............54 58 64 68 70 71 71 70 66  
DEWPOINT........50 52 53 52 52 51 53 54 55  
RH..............86 80 67 57 53 49 53 57 68  
APARNT TMP (F)..54 58 64 68 70 71 71 70 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW S S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 7 8 10 11 7 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.5 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 6 5 7 7 13 9 5  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3  
ADI.............4 3 7 12 19 23 21 17 13  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 2 5 9 15 19 17 13 6  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............54.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...63.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (5300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4 IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
ADI.................11 IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........60 60 60 60 60 60 63 63 63 63 63 63  
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............63 61 59 58 56 55 55 55 54 55 55 55  
DEWPOINT........55 55 55 54 53 53 53 53 53 54 54 54  
RH..............75 81 87 86 90 93 93 93 96 96 96 96  
APARNT TMP (F)..63 61 59 58 56 55 55 55 54 55 55 55  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 14 15 16 14 14 15 15 18 18 20  
LVORI...........3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 M M M M  
ADI.............13 8 8 8 12 12 12 12 M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10005 6 7 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 16 17  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............55 DECREASING TO 52 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...70.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 23 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 10  
MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (55300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............MISSING.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........28 28 28 28 28 28 47 47 47 47 47 47  
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............55 55 57 61 64 67 68 69 70 70 68 65  
DEWPOINT........55 55 56 57 57 56 55 55 54 53 53 52  
RH..............100 100 96 87 78 68 63 61 57 55 59 63  
APARNT TMP (F)..55 55 57 61 64 67 68 69 70 70 68 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.5 3.6 2.8 2.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 21 20 22 22 20 20 20 18 16 13 10  
LVORI...........M M M M M M M M M M M M  
ADI.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100016 13 11 19 26 35 43 50 55 39 26 15  
 

 
FORECASTER...CORNWELL  
REQUESTED BY...JON BAILEY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2119832.0/GYX  
.DELDT 10/21/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL JBAILEY@TNC.ORG  
 
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