939
FXUS64 KHGX 170546
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NE CONUS
AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS HAS HELP-
ED TO DEEPEN THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SE TX TODAY. THIS HAS WARMED
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THIS TREND IS GOING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS THE STRONG WAA PERSISTS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN/
AROUND THE PINEY WOODS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
WITH PROGGED PWS CLIMBING TO 1.6-1.9", RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN-
CREASING ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING
TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY GREY WET DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WE COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THESE RAINS TO-
MORROW EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ONLY ISOLAT-
ED COVERAGE LATE OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF WAA-TYPE STREAMER SHRAS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BUT, LOOK FOR MORE RAIN AND
OTHER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MON...SEE BELOW. 41
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WARM, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE MID-UPPER TROF EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TX-OK-KS, ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN
THE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING HOURS. WOULD ANTICIPATE A THIN BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MEAGER, SO WHILE SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT
EXACTLY ZERO, THEY SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END.
DRIER AND A TOUCH COOLER WX IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY. BUT, AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST AND
TROFFINESS DEEPENS TO OUT EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT,
DRY SECONDARY FRONT PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO, OR SLIGHTLY BELOW,
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES NEXT WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL/SLOW MODIFICATION TREND.
47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF TSRA ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THUS, THERE WAS NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST
A MENTION OF TS IN THE TAFS DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS
OF IFR (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10) ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING, WITH
MOSTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MVFR IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, LOOK FOR INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLAN IS TO START OUT
WITH THE CAUTION FLAGS OFFSHORE TONIGHT, BUT THERE'S A CHANCE THEY
MIGHT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES BEFORE MORNING. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD THEY'LL BE NEEDED SUNDAY.
A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS. A SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THOUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR
PUSHING OVER THE WARM WATER WILL LEAD TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT.
WITH A NEARLY FULL MOON IN PLACE, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS,
THERE'S A RISK OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PETSS INDICATES HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD BEING SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN OBSERVED LEVELS OF 3.9-4.5FT MLLW
ARE FORECAST. (FOR REFERENCE, THE LOWEST COASTAL ROADS LIKE HIGHWAY
87/124 ON BOLIVAR BEGIN SEEING SOME OVERWASH AT AROUND 3.75 MLLW).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 9AM MONDAY. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 82 68 80 / 20 70 30 100
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 82 73 83 / 40 60 20 90
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 80 75 81 / 40 50 20 90
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...47
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