613
FXUS64 KHGX 051117
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH GRADUAL
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
THOUGH FAIRLY DRY, THE FORECAST HUMIDITY ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL MITIGATE CONCERN ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
- THE NEXT FRONT FOR OUR AREA IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SOME BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED ON EXPECTATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE STILL FAIRLY LIGHT, WINDS ARE NOW MORE
DECIDEDLY ONSHORE, AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE
ANTICIPATED WEEKEND FRONT ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN, WE'LL LOOK FOR A
TREND OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH THE INCREASE
IN DAYTIME HIGHS OUTPACING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. THIS WILL
HELP EXPERIENCE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS BOTH THE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE LESS OPPRESSIVE DURING THE DAY, AND WILL ALLOW
FOR THINGS TO MORE EFFECTIVELY COOL OFF AT NIGHT.
SO, WHILE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE THERMOMETER APPROACH SUMMER-
LIKE NUMBERS, AND IT SHOULD FEEL HOT OUT, IT WON'T QUITE FEEL LIKE
SUMMER DOES AROUND HERE, EITHER. THAT SAID, BOTH HEATRISK AND WET
BULB GLOBE TEMP FORECAST NUMBERS INDICATE A LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
RISK EMERGING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY, SO IT'S
WORTHWHILE TO REMEMBER THAT IT WILL BE HOTTER THAN USUAL FOR
NOVEMBER AND ENOUGH SO THAT YOU COULD OVERSTRESS YOURSELF IF
YOU'RE NOT CAREFUL WITH THE OUTDOOR EXERTION. A LITTLE AWARENESS
WILL GO A LONG WAY TO ENSURING YOU DON'T ACCIDENTALLY GET YOURSELF
IN A BAD TIME.
SUFFICE TO SAY, THE WARM WEATHER LOVERS AMONG US ARE GOING TO BE
VERY HAPPY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT DO WE HAVE
ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AMONG US WHO LIKE IT COLDER?
TURNS OUT YES, YES WE DO! I DON'T WANT TO GET TOO DETERMINISTIC ON
TIMING HERE AS THERE'S ALWAYS A BIT OF SLIDING AROUND THAT HAPPENS
WITH FORECASTS AT LONG RANGE, BUT AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY, WE
HAVE A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA (PROBABLY
SATURDAY EVENING, GIVE OR TAKE) AND BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD GET DECENTLY GUSTY AFTER THIS ONE, AS IT'S
PROPELLED BY A SOLID UPPER TROUGH AND HAS A GOOD POOL OF COLD AIR
BEHIND IT. NOT MATCHING THE GALES WE SAW A WEEK AGO, BUT WE'LL
NOTICE THE BREEZE FOR SURE.
THE BIG QUESTION REALLY IS HOW MUCH OF THAT COLD AIR ARE WE GOING
TO SEE BEHIND THE FRONT? THERE SEEMS TO BE A PRETTY SOLID
CONSENSUS THAT THE COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL MISS US TO THE
EAST - I'M NOT ANTICIPATING AN EARLY VISIT FROM WINTER HERE,
WINTER LOVERS. BUT, WE DO LOOK TO GET CLIPPED BY AT LEAST A BRIEF
SHOT OF DECENTLY COLD AIR. BOTH THE NAEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLE MEANS
TAKE 850 TEMPS FROM THE 99TH PERCENTILE BEFORE THE FRONT (HOT!) TO
BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE BEHIND THE FRONT (CHILLY!) WHAT DOES
THAT LOOK LIKE ON THE GROUND? LOWS IN THE 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S
UP NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO WATCH THE TRENDS ON. THE NBM DISTRIBUTION SUGGESTS A
30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LIGHT FREEZE THAT NIGHT IN THE H-T-P
(HOUSTON, TRINITY, POLK COUNTIES) AS WELL AS MADISON COUNTY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY DON'T LOOK TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. UP IN HOUSTON
COUNTY, THE COLD SPOTS MIGHT STRUGGLE TO EVEN BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK! AGAIN LOOKING AT THE NBM DISTRIBUTION, IT SUGGESTS ONLY A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HOUSTON COUNTY GETS ABOVE 60 DEGREES ON
MONDAY.
WHILE DEFINITELY A SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER, THIS DOES LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. SORRY, WINTER FANS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
BRINGS THE 850 TEMP ABOVE THE 10TH PERCENTILE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE EURO ENSEMBLE GOES EVEN FARTHER, AND HAS 850 TEMPS BACK UP
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY! THIS IS AT/BEYOND THE END
OF MY FORECAST PERIOD SO I'LL NOT BE SO FOOLISH AS TO SPECULATE
TOO MUCH ON SPECIFICS. REGARDLESS, IT SEEMS FAIR TO CALL THE
COLDER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY JUST A QUICK VISIT TO THE
COLDER SIDE OF FALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6-9KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH OF I-10 THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS
PREVAILING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL A
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 82 61 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 69 77 71 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...LUCHS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page