954
FXUS64 KHGX 060646
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1246 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR DRIVING EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN AREAS WITH DENSE FOG.
- GENERALLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
OUR PINEY WOODS COUNTIES COULD HAVE THEIR FIRST FROST / LIGHT
FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PLEASE
DRIVE WITH CAUTION WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK BY MID-MORNING. WE MAY POTENTIALLY HAVE DENSE FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE
MORNING FOG, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY, AND MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARMER
FORECAST TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE THANKS TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LL
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SPOTS HIT 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT
LAST GIVEN THAT THIS IS A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WITH CANADIAN
CONNECTIONS.
THE PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY INTO A POSITIVE
PHASE WHILE THE NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) FAVORS
RIDGING OVER GREENLAND. THE RESULTING AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD TREND TOWARDS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THIS PATTERN WILL
SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-10. COULDN'T RULE OUT
THOSE TEMPS BEING COOLER. BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
A STRONG CAA REGIME, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR TEMPERATURE GRIDS, WE LEANED SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE COLDER GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS PLACES MOST OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 30S WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
DROP INTO THE LOW 40S (UPPER 40S ON THE COAST). WORTH MENTIONING
THAT GUSTY WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL 5-10 DEGREES COLDER. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NORTHERN
COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S. MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE
ANOTHER COLD ONE, WITH 30S IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
40S FARTHER SOUTH. RADIATIVE COOLING MONDAY NIGHT COULD MAKE TEMPS
COLDER THAN PREDICTED. MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT
COOLING, SHOWING TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
HOUSTON! WE WILL STICK WITH THE LOW 40S IN HOUSTON FOR NOW.
THE FLOW PATTERNS BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM MODEST MID/UPPER RIDGING ALONG
WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE LL FLOW, GRADUALLY RAISING TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. THEREFORE, WE MAY BE BACK TO T-SHIRT WEATHER BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES GRIDS LEAN MORE INTO THE NBM
AFTER OUR BRIEF LITTLE COLD SPELL. IF THE NBM HAS ITS WAY, MUCH
OF THE CWA WOULD BE BACK IN THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THOSE YEARNING FOR RAIN, MY PROFOUND APOLOGIES. THE PATTERN
LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN AREAS OF
FOG BECOME MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LOOKING MUCH MORE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY. FOG
PRONE SITES WILL SEE THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY MAY
BOUNCE UP AND DOWN AT TIMES (AS COMMON WITH FOG), THOUGH SEVERAL
HOURS OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO OCCUR AT
KCXO DURING THIS EARLY MORNING PERIOD. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE, USHERING IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ONCE
AGAIN.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD OF
INTEREST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND MORNING FOG TO SPILL
OVER INTO THE BAYS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE
BETWEEN 4AM AND 9AM IN THE UPPER BAYS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
FORECASTING POTENTIAL INLAND FOG SPILLOVER INTO THE BAYS IS ALWAYS
TRICKY. ANY FOG THAT OCCURS SHOULD BREAK BY MID-MORNING. THE NEXT
WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. STRONG, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FRONT'S WAKE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST FEATURES
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS. WINDS HAVE A TENDENCY
TO OVER PERFORM WHEN COLD AIR IS ADVECTING OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER. THEREFORE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT GALE CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST FEATURES GUSTS CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL, POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 10 FEET OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 69 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ200-214-
300.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...03
MARINE...SELF
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