193
FXUS64 KHGX 071105
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
TODAY DUE TO AREAS WITH DENSE FOG.
- GENERALLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE THEIR
FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DRIVE
WITH CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING REDUCED VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT (MORE ON THE FRONT LATER), PLACING SE TEXAS IN A WAA REGIME
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SINCE MODELS CAN EASILY UNDERESTIMATE HOW
MUCH TEMPERATURES RISE IN THIS SCENARIO, I OPTED TO MIX IN SOME OF
THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE NBM TO BOOST OUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. BUT I'M NOT GOING TO BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45) HIT 90 DEGREES. BUT A
FLOW PATTERN IN FLUX WILL NOT ALLOW THE HEAT TO LINGER MUCH
LONGER. BRACE YOURSELVES FOR A PATTERN CHANGE!
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS. STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE (~1040 MB) BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, SETTING US
UP FOR A GOOD OLE FASHION "BLUE NORTHER." THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ENHANCE CAA ON SUNDAY. OUR FORECAST HIGHS AREN'T NECESSARILY
"COLD" BUT WE DO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. CONTINUED
ENHANCED CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE GOING
WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FOR LOWS NORTH OF I-10, WITH 40S FARTHER
SOUTH. WE KEEP MOST OF THE CITY OF HOUSTON IN THE 40S. BUT SOME OF
THE EARLY HI-RES GUIDANCE IS COMING IN COLDER, SUGGESTING
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY COULD WAKE UP TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. KEEP IN MIND, IT WILL BE BREEZY. SO
EXPECT THE AIR TO FEEL 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S ON MONDAY DESPITE
SUNSHINE. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. I
MIXED IN SOME COLDER MOS GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. BUT
I'M NOT GOING TO BE SURPRISED IF RURAL AND SUBURBAN AREAS DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN PREDICTED, WHICH WOULD PLACE MANY NON-
URBAN AND NON-COASTAL AREAS CONSPICUOUSLY CLOSE TO THEIR FIRST
FREEZE (ALBEIT A LIGHT FREEZE) OF THE SEASON.
MID/UPPER PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED, WITH MODEST RIDGING
INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE OVER TEXAS AFTER MONDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS,
WE EXPECT TO FIND OURSELVES RETURNING TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS, A
WARMING TREND WITH GRADUALLY RISING HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A MIXTURE OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE PROMOTING MORE MIXING LEADING TO THIS MORNING'S EVENT
BEING MORE OF A LOW CEILING IMPACT COMPARED TO THURSDAY MORNING
BEING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IMPACT. ANY LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
AREAS OF INLAND FOG MAY SPILL INTO THE BAYS AGAIN THIS MORNING.
GALVESTON BAY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FOG THAN MATAGORDA
BAY. ANY FOG SHOULD BREAK BY MID-MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD HELP TO END THE THREAT EARLIER.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG, GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AT A MINIMUM, WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD
20-30 KNOT WINDS. GUSTS OVER THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 35
KNOTS. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE MARINE WINDS
WHEN COLD AIR IS PUSHING OVER WARM WATER. THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH
/ WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE GULF AND BAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AND MUCH LOWER SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE 25-35% RANGE ON SUNDAY AND 15-25% RANGE ON MONDAY. THE
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20-30 MPH WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL START OUT
GUSTY, BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TEXAS A&M
FOREST SERVICE HAS ALREADY OUTLINED THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FORECAST FIRE DANGER RATING FOR
SUNDAY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 65 88 62 / 0 0 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 70 81 65 / 0 0 0 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ178-199-
200-210>214-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ335.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...SELF
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