494
FXUS64 KHGX 071845
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO AREAS WITH DENSE FOG.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE THEIR
FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(PINEY WOODS REGION COULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S). ISOLATED AREAS
SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 COULD REACH 90 DEG F. THIS IS ROUGHLY
ABOUT 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOODS REGION, THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF
THE INLAND AREAS, AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY AFFECT YOUR
MORNING COMMUTE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG, REMEMBER TO TURN ON
YOUR LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS, SLOW DOWN AND INCREASE DISTANCE, AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAFFIC DELAYS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN HEADLINER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS TO BE THE
UPCOMING COLD FRONT AND ITS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE WAKE OF IT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT, THUS, THERE ARE NO CONCERN FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME. A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AND AREAS CLOSE TO THE BAYS. MAKE SURE TO SECURE ANY
OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN BE EASILY BLOWN AWAY WITH STRONG WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY (REFER THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION). WE WILL ALSO SEE A
PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOWERING TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON
MONDAY. OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY GIVE US AN
INTRODUCTION TO WINTER TIME TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 30S OVER THE PINEY WOODS, THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
THE REST OF THE INLAND PORTIONS, AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES
COLDER (WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 30S LOWS). ONE THING TO NOTE IS
THAT WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT, THUS, MAKE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP GIVEN THAT IT WILL FEEL SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER.
UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE EXPECTING TO WARM BACK UP RATHER QUICKLY
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND IN THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL PUT US AT AROUND 8-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
COTTO
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A MIXTURE OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE PROMOTING MORE MIXING LEADING TO THIS MORNING'S EVENT
BEING MORE OF A LOW CEILING IMPACT COMPARED TO THURSDAY MORNING
BEING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IMPACT. ANY LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
LIGHT SSW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS AND COULD SPILL
INTO THE BAYS. FOG, IF ANY, IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BURN OFF BY
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
SUNDAY MORNING AND GUSTS COULD REACH GALE STRENGTH AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5-7 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO
12 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WINDS OF 25-30KT AND
GUSTS OF 30-35KT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING IS POSSIBLE. WATER LEVELS
OVER THE BAYS MAY REACH 0.5-1.0 BELOW MLLW DURING LOW TIDE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE 25-35% RANGE ON SUNDAY AND 15-25% RANGE ON MONDAY. THE
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20-30 MPH WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL START OUT
GUSTY, BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TEXAS A&M
FOREST SERVICE HAS ALREADY OUTLINED THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FORECAST FIRE DANGER RATING FOR
SUNDAY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 65 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 70 81 65 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...COTTO
FIRE WEATHER...BATISTE
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