061
FXUS64 KHGX 082130
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING OF CAUTIOUS DRIVING WITH
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED FOGGY SPOTS MAY
ALSO SEE AREAS OF MORE DENSE FOG EMERGE, WITH VISIBILITY FALLING
UNDER A MILE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER, MUCH DRIER AIR
IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WELL NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO COULD HAVE THEIR FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AND HAVE
RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL GULF WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE CURRENT GALE WATCH, AT WHICH POINT
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END AND THE GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH SE TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT, WE ARE EXPECTING OTHER HAZARDS, INCLUDING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF SE TEXAS, WELL...FIRE WEATHER BECOMES A CONCERN.
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EVEN DRIER
AIR EXPECTED MONDAY...AND WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY, WE
HAVE OPTED TO AT THE VERY LEAST ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LATER SHIFT MAY OPT TO UPGRADE THIS TO A RED FLAG
WARNING WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. PLEASE USE CAUTION WITH OPEN
FLAMES AND SPARKS...AND PREFERABLY AVOID USING THEM ENTIRELY. BURN
BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO PLEASE MAKE SURE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THESE AND ADHERE TO THEM.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER HAD AN ACCURATE DEPICTION THAT IT WILL INDEED BE A BIT
OF A WHIPLASH. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TODAY WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
BY MONDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY WINDS. SPEAKING MORE
FROM A STATISTICAL STANDPOINT (TO PAINT A MORE DRAMATIC PICTURE),
THE NAEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM
AROUND 99TH PERCENTILE VALUES TODAY TO BELOW THE 3RD PERCENTILE
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, 850MB TEMPS
RETURN TO NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. IN SUMMARY... NOT EXPECTING
PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES.
SPEAKING MORE ON THE COLD SNAP...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (HOUSTON, MADISON, TRINITY, POLK) TO DIP
BELOW FREEZING BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING (HREF PROBABILITIES
AROUND 60-80%). WITH WINDS PERSISTING OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE SAME AREAS
BRIEFLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN ANY CASE, THOSE LIVING NORTH OF
HOUSTON METRO (ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS) WHO ARE VULNERABLE TO
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO REMEMBER THE PS..PEOPLE, PETS,
PIPES, AND PLANTS! FOR THOSE CLOSER TO I-10, THE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LOW BUT NONZERO...SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING
POTENTIAL.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AHEAD OF A WEAK, DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD VLIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE DEGRADED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-10, WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 6-10 KT. GOING INTO TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WINDOW
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SGR/LBX AFTER
04Z. DECREASED VISIBILITIES WILL SUBSIDE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING NEAR 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AFTER A STRETCH OF TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED PASS OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 2AM-6AM SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BEFORE THE FRONT, BUT PARTICULARLY
HIGHER NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR THE GULF WATERS THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
AFTER WHICH IT WILL EITHER CONTINUE AS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GULF WATERS AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH THE ODDS PROBABLY FAVOR A VERY HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH SPORADIC GALE GUSTS, IT WOULD NOT TAKE A BIG UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN THE WINDS TO GIVE US MORE WIDESPREAD GALES.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD BEHIND THE FRONT IS FOR LOW WATER
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS.
BAILEY/COTTO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE 25-35% RANGE ON SUNDAY AND 15-25% RANGE ON MONDAY. WHILE
THE DRIEST CONDITIONS HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST ON SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL START OUT
GUSTY, BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A COUPLE RAIN EVENTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL HELP
TEMPER THE THREAT POSED BY THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PINEY WOODS. DATA FROM
THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE INDICATES ABOVE, BUT NEAR NORMAL,
FUEL CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE UNUSUALLY DRY AS THE DRIER AIRMASS
SETS IN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A WARNING IS
ISSUED OR NOT, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL- IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH FLAME
AND SPARKS, AS WELL AS OBEY ALL BURN RESTRICTIONS AND BURN BANS TO
MINIMIZE THE IGNITION OF NEW FIRES.
BAILEY/LUCHS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 57 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 61 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 65 74 47 / 0 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ350-355-
370-375.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...BAILEY/COTTO
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