090
FXUS64 KHGX 102104
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TUESDAY, A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS
VALLEY. CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY. DUE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, SURFACE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AT
TIMES TUESDAY.
- A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS
AND BRAZOS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
- ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL GENERATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS IN THE BAYS, PARTICULARLY THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
GALVESTON BAY AND THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL. FOR THIS, A LOW
WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY'S LOW TIDE
CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS ARE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN...FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST
TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TOMORROW, AND WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES AND DRY FUELS, OPTED TO CONTINUE THE RFW INTO TOMORROW.
DEPENDING ON WHO YOU ASK (COLD WEATHER PEOPLE OR WARM WEATHER
PEOPLE) IT COULD BE GOOD NEWS OR BAD NEWS THAT THE STRETCH OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ONSHORE/SE WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
USHERING IN WAA AND MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR MOISTURE TO REACH FURTHER
INLAND, AS MENTIONED WITH THE LAST PARAGRAPH AND THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND INTO THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, SIGNALING THE RETURN OF THE WARMING TREND...AND THE
HUMIDITY. LOWS WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND AS NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE
30S TO LOW 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO MAY
BRIEFLY DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THIS COMING WEEKEND, AND WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM ONSHORE FLOW, THIS FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FEATURE
POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SINCE THIS IS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, DON'T HOLD ON TOO TIGHTLY TO THESE
VALUES, BUT USE IT AS MORE OF A HEADS UP THAT THIS COMING WEEKEND
COULD FEATURE SOME WET WEATHER.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND AFTER ~18Z. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO
15-20 KT THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON, THEN TAPER OFF AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
10-15 KT GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
MODERATE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AFTER WHICH SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO GENERATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON AREA
BAYS FOR MONDAY'S LOW TIDE CYCLE. THE MOST SEVERE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON UPPER PORTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY AND
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL, WHERE A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MAY EVEN LINGER AROUND
MANCHESTER AND MORGAN'S POINT INTO TUESDAY'S LOW TIDE CYCLE, WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW WATER ADVISORY
FOR ANOTHER DAY.
BEYOND TODAY, LESS ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TWO PERIODS TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE FOR A
STRETCH OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE.
BAILEY/LUCHS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
BEYOND TODAY, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AWAY FROM THE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AND WE'LL BE WATCHING LOCATIONS FAR INLAND FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS,
AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WHILE THESE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN MORE HUMID AIR AND SET US UP FOR A
TREND TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LATE IN THE WEEK, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY FAR AWAY FROM
THE COAST. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BRAZOS VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.
BAILEY/LUCHS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 36 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 54 72 66 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ195-197-
210>212.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ330-335.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ350-355-
370-375.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...BAILEY/LUCHS
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