179
FXUS66 KHNX 150520 AAB
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
920 PM PST SAT DEC 14 2024
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT WITH AN
OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 18 INCHES OR MORE IN AND AROUND
YOSEMITE ABOVE 7,000 FEET AND A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 12
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ABOVE 6,000 FEET SOUTH OF YOSEMITE IN
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
2. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE
COASTAL RANGE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUST ALSO EXPECTED TO
EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
3. THERE IS A 30 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN TODAY FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH CHANCES
INCREASING FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD. LOWER PERCENTAGE RANGES
CLOSER TO KERN COUNTY.
4. A WEAKER SECOND TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE A
RIDGE BUILDS ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
PRECIPITATION AND A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING, EDGING INTO WESTERN MERCED COUNTY AS OF
16Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH HEAVY
AT TIMES RAIN ALL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT A STRONG 850 MB JET EXIST WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO GUST
UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 198.
THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WARNING IS EFFECT FOR THAT ZONE, WITH A
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
ALSO, EXPECT SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER THE TO THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORCAL.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS MARIPOSA AND
MADERA COUNTIES MID DAY TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS 10AM TO 1PM
FOR THAT OCCURRENCE. DUE TO RECENT BURNED AREAS IN THIS REGION
OF THE AREA, AND RAIN RATES SEEN ALREADY FURTHER WEST EXTRA
CAUTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THOSE AREAS TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK HELPING OF SNOW
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA ZONES ABOVE 7KFT.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT WEAKER WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY. THAT SYSTEM TOO
LOOKS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULDN'T BRING NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE CURRENT ONE.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE ALL POINTS IN THAT DIRECTION THOUGH A SMALL
MINORITY OF MEMBERS LINGER THE MONDAY SYSTEM TO OUR EAST. THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW STRONG WILL THIS RIDGE BE, WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE OUR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND AIR QUALITY. REGARDLESS,
IT DOES APPEAR FOG WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
06Z ISSUANCE:
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF MVFR IN MIST AND SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN MIST
UNTIL 20Z SUN.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY
VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS
UNTIL 18Z SUN.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/14/2024 13:55
EXPIRES: 12/15/2024 23:59
ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 15 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ323-
326>330.
PUBLIC...MEADOWS
AVIATION...DAS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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