023
FXUS66 KHNX 151803
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1003 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INCLUDING HANFORD, VISALIA AND FRESNO.
2. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WITH PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED NORTH OF
MADERA COUNTY.
3. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
4. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANGE IN PATTERN WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
AFTER A VERY BLUSTERY AND ACTIVE WEATHER DAY YESTERDAY, WE WAKE
UP THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF KINGS,
FRESNO, AND TULARE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE A NICE DAY
AS WE HAVE A SMALL RIDGE OVER OUR AREAS.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH ONLY BRINGS
ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE IN TOTAL
FOR TUOLUMNE MEADOWS AND TIOGA PASS. IN THE VALLEY, LATEST
PROBABILITIES HAVE A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS OF ANY RAIN
ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF MERCED AND MARIPOSA. HOWEVER, MERCED AND
MARIPOSA HAVE A 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASING TEMEPRATURES AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS RIDGE INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO BE PERSISTENT FOR
MOST NIGHTS. LATEST PROBABILITIES HAVE AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT
CHANCE OR HIGHER FOR THE ENTIRE VALLEY TO HAVE A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF AT LEAST 65 DEGREES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON SATURDAY WITH REGARDS TO A CHANGE IN
PATTERN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. CURRENT PROBABILITIES HAVE A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OF NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES ESPECIALLY DISAGREE AS
TO WHETHER THE MOISTURE TRAIN WILL BE MORE TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE LATEST CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS TAKE NOTE OF THIS
SPLIT WITH A VERY WARM PATTERN WITH A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE
OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE OUTLOOKS GIVE A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MERCED
AND POINTS NORTH WHILE A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION GROWS FROM BEING IN KERN COUNTY IN THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD IN THE 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE:
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, MOSTLY VFR TODAY WITH SPOTS INCLUDING
FAT AND VIS AT LIFR TO IFR DUE TO FOG UNTIL ABOUT 20-21Z BUT MAY
DISSIPATE BY 20Z. VFR WILL DOMINATE AFTER 20-21Z AND WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 6Z. AFTER 6Z, MVFR CONDITIONS CREEP BACK IN FOR
MOST OF THE VALLEY. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY AFTER 9-10Z INCLUDING VISALIA AND FRESNO
DUE TO FOG.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/14/2024 13:55
EXPIRES: 12/15/2024 23:59
ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 15 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ306-307-311-312.
JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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